The Dangers of a Second Trump Presidency to the LGBTQIA+ Community
Good and Bad News.
This Substack is addressed primarily to those on the Left who are concerned about what the second Trump administration means for them. If you’re one of my readers on the Political Right, X is currently full of commentators having a blast crowing about MAGA 47, so I’ll leave that to them.
For my readers on the Political Left, today is January 29, 2025 and less than a month into the new Trump administration we’ve already seen a ban on DEI, a ban on the government recognizing genders beyond gamete-based male and female sexes, transgender troops being kicked out of the military, and now the state of Idaho is going after gay marriage.
So let’s break it down….
Bad News, Part One: Dangers from SCOTUS Decisions
The first, and biggest piece of bad news, is that Americans do not have an explicit right to privacy. Instead, the 1965 Supreme Court decision Connecticut v. Griswold, which gave us the right to use contraception in marriage, and argued that such a right is -suggested- via a “penumbra” or “zone of privacy” as found in the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, as well as the First, Third, Fourth, Fifth, and Ninth Amendments. Even when Griswold was initially decided, one of the two dissenting Justices said that the creation of a Right to Privacy constituted “legislating from the Bench,” and so ever since the Originalists (i.e., Conservatives) have been looking to overturn it. A big part of overturning Roe v. Wade was establishing a line of attack on Griswold, on which Roe was based.
This is extremely important because Griswold is the foundational case for many rights which were established in later cases under this understanding of privacy, including:
Loving v. Virginia (1967), which gave Americans the right to have interracial marriages.
Eisenstadt v. Baird (1972), which gave unmarried couples the right to purchase and use contraception.
Roe v. Wade (1973), which gave women the right to have an abortion until it was overturned by Dobbs. Doe v. Bolton (1973) later enshrined this right even in cases where the life of the mother wasn’t at stake.
Carey v. Population Services International (1977), which gave minors the right to purchase contraception.
Obergefell v. Hodges (2015), which gave gay couples the right to have their marriages recognized across state boundaries.
If Griswold gets overturned, all of those issues become fair game for legislators.
Good News, Part One: The Community is still popular with most Americans, with caveats
Interracial marriage is supported by 94% of the population as of 2021, 81% support legal contraception as of 2024, 69% of Americans (and 89% of young people aged 18-29) support gay marriage as of 2024, and 64% support legal protections for transgender adults as of 2024.
So the LGBTQIA+ community still has a lot of public support across most of the country. From the most recent 2024 Yougov Poll:
Policies expanding rights and protections for transgender people that more Americans support than oppose
Including protections for transgender people in hate-crime laws (+36 net support, meaning the result of subtracting from the percentage who support it the percentage who oppose it)
Banning employers from firing employees on the basis of their transgender identity (+33)
Allowing transgender people to serve in the military (+22)
Banning conversion therapy for transgender youth (+14)
Requiring all new public buildings to include gender-neutral restrooms (+7)
Allowing government employees to use pronouns consistent with their gender identity (+6)
Bad News, Part Two: The caveats
That support drops off for transgender issues regarding minors, sports, and vulnerable female spaces such as locker rooms, prisons, and sports. From the same recent 2024 Yougov Poll:
Policies restricting rights and protections for transgender people that more Americans support than oppose
Requiring transgender athletes to play on sports teams that match their sex assigned at birth (+31)
Requiring prisons to house transgender prisoners according to their sex assigned at birth (+21)
Banning people under the age of 18 from attending drag shows (+18)
Creating a law that defines gender as a person's sex assigned at birth (+16)
Banning transgender youth from accessing puberty blockers (+13)
Requiring transgender people to use bathrooms that match their sex assigned at birth (+12)
Banning transgender youth from accessing hormone therapy (+10)
Banning government insurance from covering the costs of gender-affirming surgeries and therapies (+9)
Banning public schools from including lessons on transgender issues (+6)
Policies affecting transgender people that Americans are divided on
Allowing private insurance companies to not cover the costs of gender-affirming surgeries and therapies (+3)
Banning transgender women from using women's refuges for victims of sexual assault and domestic violence (0)
Allowing transgender people to amend their gender identity on government-issued identification (-2)
Requiring public schools to refer to students only by pronouns that match their sex assigned at birth (-3)
Good News, Part Two: If Griswold is overturned, there are allies on the Political Right who also want a right to privacy.
Libertarians, specifically. They went for Trump in 2024 as part of a quid pro quo for RFK Jr. a seat at the table as head of Health and Human Services and for getting Ross Ulbricht pardoned. So it’s more of a temporary alliance than a marriage.
Their position is that the right to privacy already exists in the Fourth Amendment, so either a case confirming its existence in the Fourth in a new Amendment would have their support. According to Ballotpedia "Libertarians strongly oppose any government interference into their personal, family, and business decisions." Or, as the joke goes,
So they’re a natural ally for restoring the rights that could conceivably be lost if Griswold is overturned. Although this too comes with the caveat that one thing Libertarians really love is getting into pointless fights with other Libertarians.
So yes, a storm is coming and damage is inevitable.
But there are also reasons for hope in the long term. If the community can figure out how to deal with the wedge issues (kids, sports, locker rooms, etc.), there is generally positive support for transgender and gay people, and there is a legal road to reestablishing any rights lost due to Griswold being overturned.
In the mean time, it is my humble suggestion to those on the Left who are worried about protecting the LGBTQIA+ community, reach out to non-voters, Libertarians, and even squishy MAGAs and try to find common ground wherever you can.
"Conservatives look for converts, liberals look for heretics."
- Michael Kinsley
If there’s anything that’s going to make the situation more severe and last longer than it has to, it’s people on the Left cutting people out of their lives because they disagree, even partially, with their politics. Each person they cut out that is partially sympathetic to both sides is someone who a Rightwinger is going to work on to become even more Right wing.
Your opponents are recruiting and persuading anyone who agrees with them even a smidge. You should as well. Even if they voted for Trump.
As always, thanks for reading!
The Democrats state on their own website democrats.org/who-we-are/who-we-serve/ that they serve women, but not men, and every racial/ethnic group except for White people. Voting for Trump was very easy, and the results have been enormous already.